by Matthew Lisiecki, MPA, Kevin Velasco, MPP, Miguel Villa, BA, and Tara Watson, PhD
The impacts of large-scale deportations on the 5.76 million U.S. citizen children of undocumented immigrants remain underexamined (estimates using the 2023 American Community Survey). Family separations can produce lasting psychological and physical effects, especially for children without suitable caregivers who must rely on a child welfare system not designed for such circumstances. Accordingly, it is essential to assess how well the child welfare system might ensure the well-being of separated U.S citizen children.
Changes in Immigration Enforcement Policy
Previous interior deportation policy tended to focus more on immigrants involved in the criminal justice system. The Trump administration has broadened enforcement by ramping up street-level enforcement not tied to criminal activity, revoking the sensitive location guidance, and encouraging broader law enforcement involvement. Though comprehensive data on deportations has not been released since January 2025, estimates place the number of ICE deportations to date at 340,000, along with 61,000 people in detention (as of August 2025), (Migration Policy Institute, 2025, (Migration Policy Institute, 2025b)). Immigrant communities are facing a new set of economic and humanitarian constraints that will disrupt the lives of millions of children.
Citizen Children at Risk of Family Separation
The Center for Migration Studies produces annual estimates of immigrant populations by legal status using the American Community Survey (ACS). We use the 2023 estimates (the most recent year with available data) to quantify the number of children at risk of family separation through detention and deportation. (Note: the initial published brief used estimates from the 2022 ACS; numbers here have been updated to reflect changes in 2023.) Children are considered “at risk” if they reside in a household with at least one undocumented individual, where legal status is indirectly inferred. Our estimates find that 5.76 million children, 8% of all U.S. citizen children, live with an undocumented household member. Among this group, 4.77 million have at least one undocumented parent, and 2.74 million live in households where both parents (or the sole parent) are undocumented. These children are predominantly young, with 83% under age 15, and nearly 60% of undocumented members of at-risk households have resided in the U.S. for over a decade. The highest shares of at-risk citizen children are found in California, Nevada, and Texas (risk share of at least 14% each).
What Happens to Citizen Children When Their Parents are Detained or Deported?
Undocumented detainees are typically granted one phone call to arrange care for their children. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is required to document and honor a parent’s decision regarding their child’s care. Parents may elect to bring their citizen children with them if they are deported, though many believe they are better off remaining in the U.S. Though deportation does not terminate parental rights, it severely constrains parents’ ability to advocate for their children’s welfare. Some states permit “standby guardianship,” allowing parents to retain rights when transferring custody, and families are encouraged to create preparedness plans, although informal arrangements frequently lack the legal protection needed to ensure child safety. Fear of enforcement limits available support networks, and informal arrangements frequently lack the legal protections needed to ensure child safety.
The Role of the Child Welfare System
The child welfare system, mainly used to respond to cases of maltreatment, is inadequately prepared to handle children experiencing separation. Child Protective Services (CPS) lead the system and prioritize uniting children with other family members. Monthly monetary support is provided, but undocumented relatives may struggle to meet the legal status requirements needed for certification. No other support exists outside of the formal child welfare system. Given legal status concerns, children may end up in non-family foster placements complete with ongoing economic support and monitoring.
Emotional Impacts of Separation
Attachment to parental figures is necessary for the development of children. Short-term separations have been shown to lead to developmental difficulties with eating, anxiety, and lasting academic decline. Adverse childhood experiences and stress have been associated with heightened risk of depression, PTSD, heart disease, and increased risk of suicide. Separations of very young children can also increase the incidence of aggressive and erratic behavior.
Household Economic Impacts of One Parent Being Deported
In mixed-status households, the deportation of a single parent is likely to have substantial economic effects, with family income dropping by as much as 48%. This will lead parents to have to make trade-offs between work and parenting commitments. Fears over information sharing would likely limit social safety net support. Families may pull their children away from school out of fear of downstream immigration enforcement, further heightening the risk of child welfare intervention.
Implications of Enforcement for the Child Welfare System
The Department of Homeland Security considers caregiving responsibilities as a factor in relief from deportation, although there is ambiguity in this guidance. What aggressive enforcement will mean for the number of children entering the child welfare system is not clear. Even if only 10% of children with no documented parent actually faced removal of both parents, and a quarter of those did not have a relative or close friend to take them, we estimate 68,500 would enter foster care at over $411 million in costs. Given the number of children in foster care is 328,000 as of late 2024, this would overwhelm an already strained system.
To date, anecdotal reports suggest child welfare systems have not seen a surge in placements. Nevertheless, the enforcement environment is causing strain in some places leading to family separations and foster care system entry (Ellis et al., 2025). Child welfare systems also need to be prepared for the possibility of receiving citizen children returning to the U.S. after initially leaving with their parents.
Conclusion
Aggressive interior immigration enforcement poses significant risks of family separation for the 5.76 million U.S. citizen children living with undocumented family members. Separated children, without robust care networks, may enter a child welfare system ill-equipped to address their unique needs. States and local governments should facilitate family placements by easing legal status caregiving requirements, and federal authorities should consider caregiving responsibilities in removal decisions. As the enforcement of immigration law is amplified, government actors must uphold their responsibility to ensure the safety and well-being of the millions of U.S. citizen children directly affected.
Matthew Lisiecki, MPA, is the Sr. Research & Policy Analyst at the Center for Migration Studies. His work covers strategies for welcoming/integrating recent migrant arrivals, methods to expand immigration legal representation, and demographic analysis of immigrant population.
Kevin Velasco, MPP, is a recent graduate from the Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy. Contact: [email protected]
Miguel Villa, BA, is a research intern at the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at the Brookings Institution and a McCourt School MPP candidate.
Tara Watson, PhD, is the director of the Brookings Center for Economic Security and Opportunity and a senior fellow in the Brookings Economic Studies program. Contact: [email protected]